🔮 Geopolitics First: The Top 10 Geopolitical Themes That Will Define 2025

A geopolitical futurecast from Abishur Prakash

The world’s most exclusive geopolitical forecast 👇

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INTRODUCTION

Last year, geopolitics entered a metamorphosis, shedding its old skin and parameters. Geopolitics was no longer just a risk. It was becoming a transformational force reshaping the globe from the ground up.

However, what is looming as 2025 begins could make the last year, and those before it, look like a walk in the park. Many geopolitical forces have begun to mature and converge, causing the world to enter a state of flux. Some forces require special attention, in particular:

• The wars in Europe and the Middle East have exhausted their brinkmanship options and diplomatic efforts. Governments are out of “small cards” (i.e. temporary ceasefires, surgical strikes). The remaining cards, soon to be played, will cause everybody to bleed and shake.

• Geopolitics is rapidly becoming the puppet master of economics, increasingly defining trade flows, foreign investment, and global commerce. As this occurs, the space for neutrality and non-alignment is disappearing. The strange paradox is that geopolitics is spinning economics, but economic realities (i.e. desire for FDI) are spinning geopolitics.

• The new vertical design of globalization, where walls and barriers pervade the globe, is entering a new chapter. This is no longer just about tech sovereignty. New objectives, like economic security or deshoring, mean that integration with the world has become anathema in many capitals.

• Existing geopolitical (and geoeconomic) strategies are wobbling after just a few short years. Nearshoring and friendshoring are shot; Russia is not isolated (it is the opposite); China’s technology development has not been halted. Many world powers are being forced back to the drawing board as their intended goals have resulted in unintended effects.

This is the state of the world as 2025 begins. It is a small piece of a much bigger picture. In the new year, a new kind of geopolitics will sweep the world: one that is far more disruptive, divergent, and ruthless than in the past. A new geopolitical cycle is beginning.