Chaos Looms As Brazil Bans X
“Wherever Big Tech is sparring with governments, from Australia to India to EU, banning the platform could become one of the first cards played.”
On September 2, the Brazilian supreme court, made up of five judges, ratified the ban on X, shuddering the platform in Brazil until Musk appoints a legal representative in the country and pays fines adding up to $3 million (and growing).
It is becoming clear that the standoff between Musk and Alexandre de Moraes (the Brazilian supreme court judge who banned X) is far from over. Both sides are digging in for an extended fight.
What led to X being banned, like de Moraes wanting X to remove certain accounts that he accused of spreading disinformation, but Musk rejecting the calls, is less important than where things go from here.
The effect of Brazil’s ban on X goes well beyond its national borders.
The showdown in Brazil, between one of the world’s largest technology platforms and the world’s seventh most populous country, with over 200 million people, is no mild flareup. It represents a new social disruption.
And, the showdown is not taking place in isolation. The whole world is watching.
What Musk or Brazil do next could draw in global powers.
Digital Political Pendulum
To start with, technology platforms underpin the politics of nations.
And one of the ways they do this is by giving different sides (i.e. left, right) a voice.
Brazil, like many other nations, is split between those who support the right and those who support the left, a chasm that is widening. While the current Brazilian president, Lula de Silva, is left-leaning, his right-leaning predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, continues to have massive support. Earlier this year, at a rally in São Paulo, almost 750,000 people turned out to see the former president.
With X, Brazil’s right-leaning population may have felt they had an outlet. Without X, they may feel dejected. The ejection of X, at a time when political polarization is at historical highs, creates a succession crisis. Where will X users go?
This creates a range of outcomes, potentially swinging Brazil’s “digital political pendulum” in a particular direction.
First, many on the right may refuse to migrate to other platforms, feeling X was their only safe harbor, reinforced by Musk supporting Trump in the US as the Republican presidential frontrunner. This could create a digital imbalance, as Brazil’s left is largely untouched or overrepresented on technology platforms in the country, while Brazil’s right goes offline, struggling to find a way to share their ideas and opinions.
Second, opposite from the first, with X gone, a massive migration could begin, as Brazil’s right-leaning population latches on to other platforms, from Threads to TikTok to Instagram. The sudden overflow of right-leaning users could force companies like Meta, ByteDance, or Alphabet, to get involved to ensure politics does not derail their services.
This creates new headaches for large technology firms. They may not be ready for millions of people in a particular country to suddenly join or become active. And because of politics, push content that is different from what the platform is used to (in that geography).
Digital migration also creates questions around new platforms people are jumping to, like Bluesky, which has become the number one free app in Brazil, registering 500,000 new users globally, as de Moraes and Musk face off. Does this make Bluesky the new right-leaning platform for Brazil? Are Bluesky executives in the US comfortable with this?
What millions of X users in Brazil do, from withdrawing from social media (until X returns) to jumping onto new platforms (to represent their beliefs), could end up changing the digital political equilibrium in Brazil. This could swing established internet platforms from left to right in Brazil; cause left-leaning people to feel overwhelmed or dejected by the sudden surge in right-leaning content and users; or it could inflame tensions between the left and right, who are forced onto the same platforms, in a very short period, in a very concentrated and dangerous way.
And, connected to all this, is that technology services themselves may have different skin based on the geography they are in. While in the West, Threads or Bluesky might be identified as having a certain political orientation, in Brazil, they might be right-leaning.
Banning X in Brazil is not the end of the road. It is, strangely, the beginning, sparking digital migration in a way that could change how politics is represented and reflected. And generating a new status quo that technology platforms will either have to adapt to or change through force.
Geopolitical Ricochet
As Brazil’s ban on X opens a can of worms domestically, it threatens to do the same on the world stage.
One of the most significant is that it could draw in the US government.
For now, the White House is quiet. But, American technology firms are critical pillars for Washington that the US government has sought to protect and shield, like when Trump threatened the EU for fining American technology platforms.
In Brazil, X is not the only US technology firm under fire.
Alongside it, Brazil has banned Meta from using local data to train its generative AI systems. And, now, on the back of the X ban, Brazil has frozen the bank accounts of Starlink, expanding the standoff to other Musk businesses.
Except, unlike other technology platforms, Starlink is critical to US national security. The US depends on Starlink for a variety of purposes.
As Brazil takes aim at Starlink, to protect the integrity of the US firm, Washington could enter the fight, completely changing the dynamics. Suddenly, Musk would have new backing, and the Brazilian state would be facing off against the US government.
Another effect is whether Brazil takes radical action against SpaceX.
While local Brazilian telecom companies are complying with the order to ban X, not surprisingly, SpaceX is not. Musk is “beaming down” X to Starlink customers as if it is business as usual. This is a kind of “digital rebellion” spreading around the world.
Just like in Iran or Ukraine, in Brazil, Starlink is once again “bypassing” government, playing a direct role in the affairs of the nation.
For the Brazilian government, there are many ways to interpret this. One of them could be that Starlink poses a threat to Brazilian sovereignty. Could the Brazilian military shoot down Starlink satellites? As crazy as this sounds, this is exactly what Russia has proposed, as Ukrainian forces use Starlink satellites to conduct drone strikes against Russian targets.
Once again, this would threaten to draw in the US, in a direct and destabilizing way.
However, for Brazil, there is a political calculation to make here, beyond clashing with Washington.
A large number of Starlink customers in Brazil are right-leaning, aligning with Bolsonaro. Taking Starlink offline, like through military action, might be a politically unwise move for Lula, as it would permanently cut off Brazil’s left from these voters indefinitely.
In this context, global politics and national politics conflict with one another.
Lastly, with X shuddered indefinitely and with a potential storm brewing with Washington, Brazil might turn towards its closest geopolitical partners like China, a member of BRICS, to solve its technology woes.
Whether it is giving TikTok an extra boost, shifting Brazilian society fully away from X, or establishing Brazil as a “launchpad” for new Chinese social services (for the non-Mandarin speaking world), the Brazilian government could use the tensions around X to reorient the nation away from American technologies.
And, such a push could also end up influencing other nations in the region.
Setting Precedent
Of all the shockwaves being generated by Brazil’s ban on X, perhaps the most consequential is that it creates a certain precedent in the world.
Unlike China or Russia, where throttling internet platforms is normal, the world of democracies prides itself on being different. But, Brazil, being the world’s fourth largest democracy, could have opened the door for many other nations to act in similar ways.
Wherever Big Tech is sparring with governments, from Australia to India to EU, banning the platform could become one of the first cards played. And, some governments may have no intention of turning the lights back on.
This dynamic means that the same internal challenges facing Brazil, from digital migration to digital political pendulum, could begin to appear in other nations that shudder social platforms.
At the core of what this means, is an erosion in how people exercise their freedom of speech. A community newspaper stopping print because of lack of funding is one thing. But, a global platform like X, used by potentially tens of millions in a given geography, suddenly going dark, is something else entirely.
It is like suddenly removing a functioning organ from the body. The rest of the body has to adjust. Similarly, removing a major platform from a nation, creates consequences for every other system, from rival platforms to government-funded media, where blood and attention will rush to.
Alongside this, is a separate matter, one that draws in freedom of speech and geopolitics at the same time.
When India banned TikTok, after tensions flared with China in mid-2020, the fear and fallout revolved around economic loss (i.e. many Gen Z in India used TikTok to make a living) or Chinese retaliation (i.e. Beijing going after Indian businesses). When the US passed the “sell or ban” order for TikTok earlier this year, most criticism was about American society losing access to information.
In both India and the US, few were asking whether the ejection of a Chinese platform would erode freedom of speech.
But, in the case of X being banned in Brazil, this is one of the biggest questions being asked: how will the loss of X affect freedom of speech in the third largest country in the Americas?
This strange difference implies that there is an inherent bias towards Chinese and American social platforms.
The Chinese platforms outside of China, led by TikTok, are not viewed as integral to democracy. They are viewed purely through the lens of lifestyle, economy, or connection. However, the US platforms, led by X, Instagram, or WhatsApp, even with their hangups, are still viewed as integral to democracy, as core pillars upholding certain liberties like freedom of speech.
This is a dynamic that will grow more significant in the coming years and one that is likely to make Beijing extremely uncomfortable, as it implicitly means, for now, that Chinese platforms are far more expendable than their American counterparts in certain geographies.
Conclusion
Like other fights between countries and Big Tech, the showdown between X and the Brazilian government has just begun. Already, it is snowballing as SpaceX is dragged into the mud.
A big part of what has irked the Brazilian government is the footprint of American technology companies. In the case of X, it is a digital platform, with no representation in Brazil since April, when the head of X Brazil resigned. In the case of Starlink, the entire service is beamed down to terminals controlled by citizens.
This changes the game for governments - like in Brazil.
Getting technology companies to do what a nation wants, when there is no physical footprint or employee base or when services bypass infrastructure the state controls, makes governments more likely to use the “ban card.” But even this is not the end of the story, as Starlink beaming down X in Brazil shows.
This means the same business model that technology platforms have used to rapidly grow and cross borders, has suddenly become a hindrance and vulnerability, to the platforms themselves and the geographies they are operating in.
But, added to this, is that global politics is also poking its head at every corner.
Whether it is home governments getting involved (i.e. White House standing behind Musk) or foreign governments getting hostile (i.e. Brazil shooting down SpaceX satellites), national affairs are quickly becoming global affairs (and vice-versa).
What is taking place in Brazil is no longer a game of who blinks first.
Now, it is a game of chess, as Musk and Brazil navigate each other, and the world, on a battlefield where the old rules no longer apply.
-Abishur
Want to republish this insight? Let’s talk: abishur at mrgeopolitics dot com
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