America's First "Geopolitical Election"
To solve problems at home, America will have to solve problems in the world
For more than two years, since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, geopolitics has quietly been piercing the bubble of the US presidential elections. Unlike in the past, the world’s most consequential exercise in democracy, selecting the next US president, has not been driven only by domestic affairs. Even if Americans are unaware, their most personal hangups and frustrations are directly linked to the world stage.
As the price of gas in the US tops $3 per gallon, adding to the cost of living crisis, part of the blame lies with geopolitics in the Middle East. The back-and-forth between Israel and Iran is causing oil prices to rise and fall. On October 1, when Iran launched almost 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, oil prices rose 3%. After Israel’s limited strikes, as retaliation, oil prices quickly dropped. Now, as Iran threatens to strike back and continues to flirt with closing off the Strait of Hormuz, where 30% of global oil trade transits daily, oil prices have risen again by $2 per barrel. All of this uncertainty and market volatility is circling back to the gas pump.
Fears of millions of illegal immigrants pouring into American society are no longer just about “Mexico.” They draw in the whole world. For example, after Latin America, the largest source of illegal immigrants to the US comes from India. On the same list as India are China and the Philippines. The economic and social situation in the Global South, including in rising economic powers, is bleeding into US society as tens of thousands seek refuge in America.
All of this means when US voters cast their ballot, they are indirectly selecting a set of solutions for the world stage that are being presented as “solving energy” or “solving immigration.”
No US presidential election has functioned this way.
Most US elections have been significant because of the place America commands in the world. But there is now another dimension. To solve the issues disrupting the US homeland, the next president will have to turn his or her eyes to foreign lands and the outlook of powerful governments.
The 2024 US presidential election between Donald Trump (R) and Kamala Harris (D) is the world’s first “geopolitical election.”1 But it won’t be the last.
GLOBAL IMPACT
For the past several months, the impact of the US election on the world stage has been snowballing.
There are several ways this has been happening.
Start with Israel-Iran.
On October 26th, over 100 Israeli warplanes decimated critical Iranian air defense systems, protecting strategic sites like oil facilities and knocking down missile production sites. An Iranian retaliation is coming. But, the US election is complicating matters for Tehran.
Hitting Israel before November 5th could tilt the election in Donald Trump’s favor, as the Biden-Harris administration looks unable to stop chaos in the Middle East. And if Trump wins, Iran assumes that Israel will have carte blanche. But, if Harris wins, striking Israel could disrupt Biden's initiatives that the incumbent VP is likely to put her weight behind, like a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and, separately, a pause in fighting in Lebanon.
What Iran does could influence the outcome of the US election and end up hurting Iran in the long run.
Look at the global economy.
The bold remarks from Donald Trump, like protecting the dollar or Trump referring to tariffs as his favorite word (or even proposing to replace federal income taxes with tariffs), have jolted the world.
A survey of Europeans, by YouGov, found that majority of people surveyed across the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Sweden, and Denmark, prefer a Harris presidency over Trump. There is no surprise, as Trump warns that Europeans will have to pay “a big price” over trade imbalances. The Europeans have already drafted a list of items that could be hit as retaliation if Trump imposes duties on European imports. According to one European diplomat, “We will hit back fast and we will hit back hard.”
Meanwhile, the recent BRICS Summit in Russia, representing the rise of a “counter collective” did not see a major push towards de-dollarization, perhaps due to Trump’s threat of imposing a 100% tariff on nations that ditch the dollar in bilateral trade.
Everybody is hedging their bets.
However, the presidential candidates aside, there is a third force driving the US election and geopolitics that has gone completely under the radar: the incumbent president Joe Biden.
Biden has caused several balls to start rolling that are changing geopolitics and which the next president will have to contend with, such as:
Potentially activating the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR), giving America the ability to control the trade of any item that is produced with American technology, disrupting the global economy.
Establishing new limits on the export of US “resources” like restricting US outbound investment to China or throttling advanced chip sales to the Middle East.
Giving Ukraine permission to begin striking Russia with Western weapons, starting with Russian soldiers in Ukrainian territory but possibly expanding to Russian territory itself.
Exploring a new mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia that would replicate the agreements America has with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines and shift the entire Middle East.
The “Biden factor” has been overshadowed by the bold rhetoric on the campaign trail.
But in seeking to understand the connction between the US election and geopolitics, the steps the current US president has taken (and continues to take), which his successor will inherit, matter just as much as what the candidates themselves are calling for.
DIVERGENT PATHS
To solve the problems facing Americans, Trump and Harris will be forced to steer the American ship through stormy, geopolitical waters. And while in the end, geopolitics might limit their options, in the short term, Trump and Harris present two different geopolitical paths for America. Equally important, is that many believe Harris will not “disrupt” the world, like Trump. However, even if Harris does not disrupt the world, the world will disrupt America over the next four years.
The two paths facing America are divergent.
(D) HARRIS PATH: “Guardian America”
The Harris geopolitical path (Guardian America) will focus on using global architecture to put out the various fires around the world that are ricocheting throughout the US economy and society. This means that America will direct greater resources to institutions, alliances, and projects that are the bedrock of the globe, and which much of the world still relies on for their own stability and development.
For example:
Energy: To stop the flareup between Israel and Iran, Harris is likely to attempt another Iran nuclear deal, and also pressure Israel into ending operations in the Gaza with an arms embargo. Or, to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, Harris will focus on supporting Kyiv’s “Victory Plan.”
Jobs: Competing with China will be the primary lens that Harris looks at jobs through. To create jobs, Harris will double down on domestic investment, from infrastructure to the next iteration of the CHIPS Act, seeking to stimulate the US economy from within.
Wars: To shield America from future shocks that threaten the nation, Harris is likely to reinforce the existing sanctions frameworks and bolster support for US allies in Asia in a bid to deter “new aggression” (i.e., China making a play for Taiwan).
(R) TRUMP PATH: “Maverick America”
In contrast, the Trump geopolitical path (Maverick America) will focus on rewriting the global architecture. However, this will not be an explicit rewrite. In Trump’s mind, putting out the global fires requires America to fundamentally redesign its relationship with the rest of the world. And, in order to do this without destabilizing America, Trump will bank on two of America’s greatest assets: its economy (the largest and wealthiest economy in the world) and its military (the core of Western defense and security).
For example:
Energy: To stop the flareup between Israel and Iran, Trump is likely to attempt a meeting with Iran, like with North Korea. And while many assume Trump will give Israel carte blanche, Trump may end up pressuring Israel to stop its conduct in Gaza and Lebanon. Or, to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, Trump will focus on freezing the conflict.
Jobs: Competing with the world, from allies to adversaries, will be the primary lens that Trump looks at jobs through. Trump will redesign American economic rules, from trade to currency, to generate a new source of revenue, that is then reinvested in America through domestic projects.
Wars: To shield America from future shocks that threaten the nation, Trump is likely to “offload” the burden of defense to regional stakeholders, putting the responsibility of diplomacy and peace in the hands of local governments instead of Washington, sitting thousands of miles away.
Regardless of what path the US selects - Guardian or Maverick - the focus will be on alleviating the headaches weighing on the American psyche. However, from day one, ending the cost of living crisis or keeping energy prices from shooting up, will require America to play geopolitics like never before.
Whether Trump or Harris, geopolitics may be the key to turning the page in America.
GEOPOLITICAL CURVEBALLS
In the midst of all the political back-and-forth, a set of geopolitical curveballs could hijack the election, creating even more uncertainty for America, the world, and the challenges facing US citizens.
First, regardless of what Trump or Harris want to achieve, what Biden experienced halfway through his presidency with the Ukraine war could be what the next US leader experiences right off the bat.
A massive escalation, like between Israel and Iran, would force Trump or Harris into crisis mode, even before taking the oath of office, diverting and dedicating resources to put out the global fire.
Campaign pledges could take a backseat or be radically redesigned in light of what happens next with certain flashpoints.
Second, if geopolitics disrupts the world, like Israel-Iran or Ukraine-Russia, between November 5th and inauguration day, it will require the incumbent president (Biden) to work with the president-elect. If the president-elect is Harris, this is relatively straightforward and easy. However, if the president-elect is Trump, it could further polarize the US.
In normal circumstances, the incumbent and president-elect might work together to deal with the global fire. However, considering the sheer division and chasm between Biden and Trump, the direction Biden moves in might be diametrically opposite to what Trump wants. And if Trump makes his position public, it will confuse the US public and the world as to what America is doing.
Third, alarm bells are ringing louder about the global economic situation.
The world is teetering on the edge of a major economic decline, what some are even warning could be a new depression that dwarfs the Great Recession of 2007-08. As Germany’s economy shakes, new turmoil in other major economies could push the global economy into a painful recession. And such a situation could end up driving more destabilizing behavior on the world stage.
The next US leader might have to grapple with a double crisis: a global economic crash and the geopolitical fallout.
Fourth, and lastly, just as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the October 7th attacks came out of leftfield, another destabilizing global event could take place within the next few months.
Two in particular - Iran claiming it has developed a nuclear weapon and, separately, a major cyber attack - continue to keep many global leaders awake at night. The shockwaves of either event will circle the world many times over and shift many governments into “panic mode.”
All eyes will turn to America and its next leader to provide an immediate solution and direction. And coupled with other geopolitical challenges (i.e. a US-China trade war), once again, the agenda of the next US president could be hijacked by the world stage.
ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS
Solving domestic challenges requires geopolitical solutions. What America is experiencing, many other nations are about to experience, too. The domestic issues they are facing are underpinned by nations colliding on the world stage. To solve the headaches of the people, governments will need prescriptions for geopolitics, many of which will be hard to come by.
Election day is not the end of the election. Even if a winner is declared on November 5th, the US election could continue to sow chaos if a “global shock” takes place. Depending on who the president-elect is, America could witness the election carrying on as the incumbent faces off against his successor during the short transition window.
America and the world face two different paths. Trump will be the Maverick; Harris will be the Guardian. Both have their advantages and weaknesses. And, in the end, both might end with a fundamentally reshaped footprint of America. In the short term, though, these are two divergent paths that will take America and its people toward different horizons.
Global South is emerging, but US is still the “Global Center”. Even with the extraordinary rise of China, the big bets about India, and the power of the MIddle East, it is the US election that is keeping the world awake at night. Even with all the weight and challenges, America is still the center of the world, and the world is linked to the outcome of the election in a way, it is not linked to elections in other nations.
Geopolitics could tilt the scales. In 2024, it might be a strike by Iran on Israel that influences the election. In 2028, it might be a clash between Poland and Russia. Regardless of the timeline or event, geopolitics could have the “last laugh” in US elections, as events on the world stage end up being the final factor in the decision voters make at the ballot box.
CONCLUSION
The 2024 US presidential elections have been actually three different elections all sown into one grand event.
The first election was between Trump and Biden.
The second election was after the attempted assassination on Trump’s life.
The third and current election is between Trump and Harris after Biden announced he won’t be seeking reelection.
Between these three election carriages, the US electorate has been swayed back and forth. At one moment, after Butler, Trump seemed unbeatable. At another moment, after Chicago, Harris seemed to have all the momentum. Then, as is always the case, nobody seemed to be the clear winner.
In the background of the election, the gears of geopolitics have been quickly turning. As geopolitics was unleashed, from Europe to the Middle East to Asia, thousands of miles away, Americans felt the effects: inflation, cost of living, lack of jobs, the threat of war, and social division.
Geopolitics has not been pressuring the US election. Rather, geopolitics has disrupted the US election, like a dam that has broken, and the waters are rushing through. Now, strangely, the road to fix America (and the world) passes voting stretching from Nevada to Michigan to Ohio to Florida.
In this election, the US voter won’t just be influencing who occupies the Oval Office next year, but America’s place and position in the world for the coming decades.
What is on the ticket then, is a geopolitical tossup. A comparison between two candidates, not based on their age, gender, or experience, but on their ideas for the world at large. A choice between two different outlooks on how to deal with the fires that are spreading globally.
In all this, however, Americans and the world should be warned.
Whoever wins, whoever the world is betting on, will be tested like no other president. The next four years threaten to remake the world. And just as geopolitics might be what lands the ultimate job in the White House, it might be geopolitics that defines the legacy of the next president of the United States.
-Abishur/Mr. Geopolitics
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"Geopolitical Election,” “Guardian America,” and “Maverick America” are concepts of Abishur Prakash.